Static stress triggering in operational earthquake forecasting
with Sebastian Hainzl and the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)
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Aftershock sequences take place after all moderate and large earthquakes, and are a significant source of hazard. A primary mechanism for aftershocks is the static deformation and stresses in vicinity of a mainshock. Physics-based models for Operational Earthquake Forecasting bring our physical knowledge of elasticity and friction into time-dependent, probabilistic earthquake forecasts.
Our approach has been guided by an attempt to construct physically consistent and realistic models of the processes involved, by including time-dependent (aseismic) fault slip and a realistic fault geometry. We found that deep afterslip following large subduction earthquakes significantly contributes to triggering seismicity on shallow crustal faults ( Cattania et al, 2015). Another outcome of this work is that stress heterogeneity due to the geometrical complexity of a fault system has a first-order impact in model behavior ( Cattania et al, 2014), and it significantly improves performance. This improvement was confirmed by a collaborative experiment carried out within CSEP for the aftershock sequence of the 2010 Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquake ( Cattania et al., 2018). In a collaboration with Simone Mancini (British Geological Survey/University of Bristol), Margarita Segou (BGS) and Max Werner (Univeristy of Bristol) we have further improved and tested these models, in the context of the 2016-2017 sequence in the Central Appennines (Italy).
External links: International collaboration studies the predictability of earthquakes on phys.org