aftershocks

Improving Physics-Based Aftershock Forecasts during the 2016– 2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade

The 2016– 2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial mainshock. Recent studies reveal that physics-based aftershock forecasts present comparable …

The Forecasting Skill of Physics-based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence

The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics-based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb-based seismicity models …

A Parallel Code to Calculate Rate-State Seismicity Evolution Induced by Time Dependent, Heterogeneous Coulomb Stress Changes

The estimation of space and time-dependent earthquake probabilities, including aftershock sequences, has received increased attention in recent years, and Operational Earthquake Forecasting systems are currently being implemented in various …

Propagation of Coulomb Stress Uncertainties in Physics-Based Aftershock Models

Stress transfer between earthquakes is recognized as a fundamental mechanism governing aftershock sequences. A common approach to relate stress changes to seismicity rate changes is the rate-and-state constitutive law developed by Dieterich: these …

The Relationship between Afterslip and Aftershocks: A Study Based on Coulomb-Rate-and-State Models

The spatiotemporal clustering of earthquakes is a feature of medium- and short-term seismicity, indicating that earthquakes interact. However, controversy exists about the physical mechanism behind aftershock triggering: static stress transfer and …