ETAS

Improving Physics-Based Aftershock Forecasts during the 2016– 2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade

The 2016– 2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial mainshock. Recent studies reveal that physics-based aftershock forecasts present comparable …

The Forecasting Skill of Physics-based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence

The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics-based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb-based seismicity models …