aftershocks

Tracking the Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Foreshocks Preceding the Mw 6.1 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake

How faulting processes lead to a large earthquake is a fundamental question in seismology. To better constrain this pre-seismic stage, we create a dense seismic catalog via template matching to analyze the precursory phase of the Mw 6.1 L’Aquila …

An adaptable random forest model for the declustering of earthquake catalogs

Earthquake catalogs are essential to analyze the evolution of active fault systems. The background seismicity rate, or rate of earthquakes that are not directly triggered by other earthquakes, directly relates to the stressing rate, a crucial …

Illuminating the Pre-, Co-, and Post-Seismic Phases of the 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake With 10 Years of Seismicity

The 2016 M7.8 Kaikōura earthquake is one of the most complex earthquakes in recorded history, with significant rupture of at least 21 crustal faults. Using a matched-filter detection routine, precise cross-correlation pick corrections, and accurate …

Improving Physics-Based Aftershock Forecasts during the 2016– 2017 Central Italy Earthquake Cascade

The 2016– 2017 Central Apennines earthquake sequence is a recent example of how damages from subsequent aftershocks can exceed those caused by the initial mainshock. Recent studies reveal that physics-based aftershock forecasts present comparable …

Updip and along-strike aftershock migration model driven by afterslip: application to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki aftershock sequence

We present an analytical model based on the idea that afterslip drives seismicity: aftershocks occur when a given level of afterslip is reached in their vicinity. Afterslip is assumed to be governed by a resisting stress that increases as the …

The Forecasting Skill of Physics-based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence

The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics-based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb-based seismicity models …

A model for migration of aftershocks driven by afterslip

Aftershocks region have been extensively reported to expand logarithmically with time. The associated migration velocity is typically of the order of several km/decade but can be much larger, especially when observing early aftershock sequences, …

Mapping the rheology of the Central Chile subduction zone with aftershocks

The postseismic deformation following a large ($M_w >$ 7) earthquake is expressed both seismically and aseismically. Recent studies have appealed to a model that suggests that the aseismic slip on the plate interface following the mainshock can be …

A Parallel Code to Calculate Rate-State Seismicity Evolution Induced by Time Dependent, Heterogeneous Coulomb Stress Changes

The estimation of space and time-dependent earthquake probabilities, including aftershock sequences, has received increased attention in recent years, and Operational Earthquake Forecasting systems are currently being implemented in various …

Propagation of Coulomb Stress Uncertainties in Physics-Based Aftershock Models

Stress transfer between earthquakes is recognized as a fundamental mechanism governing aftershock sequences. A common approach to relate stress changes to seismicity rate changes is the rate-and-state constitutive law developed by Dieterich: these …